Planned opposition protests on 30 June, the start of Ramadan on 9 July, and ongoing fuel and power shortages are converging to produce severe risks of violent protests in Cairo and other urban centres, in turn raising risks of Army intervention against the Morsi government, according to IHS assessment.
The opposition’s collection of 15 million signatures against President Morsi indicates unprecedented unity and a probable turnout of hundreds of thousands nationwide at protests planned for 30 June. Counter-protests by tens of thousands of Islamists and Salafis are also likely on that date, involving severe risks of violence between protesters using Molotov cocktails, knives and occasionally small arms. Smaller protests and counter-protests are also likely in the run-up to 30 June.
Westerners caught up in Salafi demonstrations are at high risk of attack; during opposition protests, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nationals are at highest risk.
In Cairo, high risk locations include the Nile Corniche area; 6 October, Kasr al-Nile and 15 May Bridges; Tahrir, Rab’a al-Adawiya, Abbasiya Squares; and the Interior Ministry and Maspiro buildings.
“Public squares, mosques, police stations, governorate buildings, and party and union offices are high risk areas in Suez City, Alexandria, Ismailiya, Port Said, Luxor, Rafah, Mahalla al-Kubra, Shibeen al-Kom and other urban centres.
“The closure of the Suez Canal is very unlikely. Aviation and port worker unions joining the Tamarrod campaign, or a resumption of customs worker strikes, would be the main indicators for disruptions to port and airport operations.”