Referenda in Eastern Ukraine illustrates lack of government control and pushes country further towards civil war, according to Matthew Clements, Deputy Head of Europe and CIS Analysis at IHS Inc.
,The fact that the referenda were held at all, despite Kiev’s ongoing security operation against the separatists and its qualification of the ballots as illegal, and despite Russian president Vladimir Putin’s suggestions to postpone them, indicates that the decision-making power in certain areas rests with pro-Russian armed militants.
Such limitations on the ability to maintain law and order on a local level means that such functions are de facto being taken up by armed militia – a situation that brings the region closer to full-blown civil war. As such, fighting is expected to continue over the coming days and weeks.
An escalation to the point of civil war would make it difficult for Russia to stand by passively, but the Kremlin is likely to call for peacekeeping forces to be sent in before considering offensive military action.
It will also become increasingly difficult for the interim government to hold the planned 25 May presidential election in these eastern regions unless it is able to make significant progress in its security operation, while avoiding a heavy death toll among the separatist gunmen and protesters.
Separatist referenda were held in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions on 11 May, with the organisers claiming that an overwhelming majority of participants voted in favour of self-rule for the regions. The vote was rejected by the interim Ukrainian government, which called the vote “a farce”, while several media reports also suggested that the referenda were poorly organised, and that people had been witnessed voting in more than one location.
Recent violence in eastern Ukraine has shown that, even without the referenda, the interim government currently has little control over the region, which has descended into a state of near lawlessness. This was illustrated by fighting in the city of Mariupol on 9 May, which left at least 21 people dead. Although accounts of the events differ markedly, it was clear that the local police force was either unable or unwilling to maintain order. Meanwhile, in the city of Donetsk, patrolling duties have apparently been split by police and pro-Russian separatist militia. Law and order at polling booths was being maintained by pro-Russian “self-defence” forces of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, according to the self-proclaimed republic’s election officials.