Lebanese media reported today (17 June) that the country’s militant Shia group Hizbullah was preparing for the repercussions of the potential redeployment of Iraqi Shia militias from Syria into Iraq, to reinforce the Iraqi government forces following Sunni insurgent group Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant’s (ISIL) capture of large parts of Sunni northern provinces, according to Firas Abi Ali, Head of Middle East and North Africa Analysis, IHS Country Risk.
Various estimates have put the number of Shia Iraqi militiamen at 20,000–30,000, and Lebanese Hizbullah fighters at 5,000–10,000.
However, there is currently no evidence that Iraqi Shia militias are withdrawing en masse from Syria. Any withdrawal by land would probably be complicated by Sunni insurgents’ ability to target their convoys as they transit Iraq’s Al-Anbar Province. Redeployment by air would only be possible with the approval of the Syrian government, which controls the airports in the country.
As such, IHS assesses that, although some Iraqi militias are likely to be redeployed, this will probably occur in an orderly manner, mainly by air, and probably co-ordinated by Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps. This will limit the impact of any Iraqi Shia withdrawal on counter-insurgency operations in Syria. The Syrian government has begun using more intensive air strikes to target ISIL positions in Syria. The Syrian government and its allies probably assess that attacking ISIL will relieve the pressure on the Iraqi army. However, in most areas of Syria, pro-government forces are facing other insurgent groups rather than ISIL, limiting their ability to meaningfully assist Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.
The government will compensate for any redeployment of Iraqi Shia fighters, using manpower drawn from Hizbullah and other sources. However, the Iraqi fighters’ departure would probably temporarily reduce the ability of the Syrian government to mount new offensives and place it on the strategic defensive.