LONDON: The Karachi airport attack, which was the largest operation carried out so far by the TTP this year, indicates a major shift in the TTP’s targeting pattern, according to an expert.
“Militants are likely to increase sharply and target key strategic industrial assets and civilian airports, in addition to their established target set of security forces, government institutions and minority communities,” Omar Hamid, Head of Asia Analysis, IHS Country Risk, in a report said.
“The TTP has expanded its target set and escalated attacks to reassert its authority and to pressure the government and Army not to launch a major offensive in the Tribal Areas.
“The attack on the airport is a major shift in the target pattern of the TTP. Till now, the TTP had preferred to focus their attacks on security forces and minority communities. While there have been several attacks on military airbases, notably at Mehran Naval Airbase in May 2011, Kamra airbase in Rawalpindi in August 2012 and Peshawar airbase in December 2012, so far civilian airports had not been targeted. The attack on Karachi airport indicates that the TTP is raising the ante and is thus now more likely to attack other airports as well as strategic industrial assets,” he added.
Mullah Fazlullah, the present Ameer, or head of the TTP, has faced considerable challenges since assuming the leadership of the TTP in October 2013. Fazlullah’s authority has been challenged by the Mehsud tribal faction of the TTP, who were aggrieved at Fazlullah’s elevation, as Fazlullah is not from the Mehsud tribe and hails from Swat, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province.
The Mehsuds make up the bulk of the TTP’s fighters, and most of the umbrella groups sheltering under the TTP are based in the traditionally Mehsud dominated territory of North Waziristan. Fazlullah has further been hampered by the fact that he is attempting to run the TTP from his base in Kunar, Afghanistan. The government has also been attempting to take advantage of the factionalisation within the TTP.
On 8 June 2014, 28 people (including ten attackers) were killed when militants affiliated with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) infiltrated and assaulted the cargo terminal at Karachi’s Jinnah International Airport.
“An escalation in attacks has therefore become almost a necessity for the TTP, to reassert its authority and to pressure the government and the Army not to launch a major offensive in the Tribal Areas. IHS had previously forecast that any split in the TTP would increase risks of major attacks for around six months to deter the Army from launching a major offensive in the Tribal Areas; this now looks increasingly likely in the next couple of months.
“In fact, the TTP has already claimed that the Karachi attack was also a response to increased military operations in the Mohmand and Bajaur Tribal Agencies in the past couple of weeks.
The Karachi airport attack was the third major attack in a week, following on a suicide bombing in Attock, Punjab, in which five people, including an Army colonel, were killed last week, and another suicide bombing on a convoy of Shia pilgrims in Taftan, Baluchistan, which occurred a few hours before the attack on Karachi airport.