Following the alleged shooting down of Malaysian Airline plane killing 295 people on-board, Vladimir Putin will be under pressure from the West to do more to seek a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Ukraine.
The report titled Russia’s Next Steps by Alisa Lockwood, Head of Europe/CIS Analysis, IHS Country Risk highlights the future scenario.
Although there is no confirmation of who was behind this, the accusations that are being made against the separatists by Ukraine and the United States mean that Russian president Vladimir Putin will be under pressure to do more to seek a peaceful resolution, for instance by sealing off the Russian-Ukrainian border.
If this is accompanied by a strong push by the Ukrainian armed forces – and potentially the introduction of a multilateral peacekeeping force – then there will be a fairly swift resolution of the situation. The separatists will be effectively suppressed, although given the equipment currently in their possession, fighting will be intense. However, if Russia blames the Ukrainian side for this incident and continues to be intransigent, this will unite Europe in pursuing the more comprehensive sanctions that it has thus far held back from. The costs to Russia of continuing to support separatist activity would be high.
Putin’s actions in recent weeks have shown that he is concerned about the potential economic consequences for Russia of further sanctions – the retraction of Russia’s right to intervene militarily in Ukraine was most likely intended to stave off sanctions, for instance. However, there are conflicting pressures on him, both from within the elite as well as from his own core constituency.
His popularity has risen on the back of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and there is a growing nationalist movement to contend within Russia itself. State-owned Russian media reacted to the incident by blaming Ukraine, and Putin’s own statement also placed responsibility firmly on the Ukrainian side, for persisting with the anti-terrorist operation in the east. Ultimately, much will depend on the outcome of the black box investigation and whether firm proof emerges of separatist involvement from AWACS and satellite imagery. Meanwhile, Western governments will seek ways to buttress the Ukrainian armed forces against the separatists.