Former Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki, is likely to challenge Haidar al-Abadi’s appointment through the State of Law Coalition (SLC) and attempt to mobilise protests by his supporters in Baghdad, according to the analysis of Meda Al Rowas, Senior Middle East Analyst, IHS Country Risk.
Abadi, with support from the United States and Iran (both of which have an interest in avoiding a Shia-Shia civil war) will probably gain the co-operation of at least some of the security forces deployed in Baghdad and promote divisions and defections within the SLC during the process of government formation.
In the interim, there is a sustained risk of fighting between rival Shia factions in Baghdad, alongside Maliki’s rivals opting to use force to remove him.
If fighting breaks out in Baghdad and is sustained for more than a week, this would raise the risk of an escalation towards a full-scale Shia-Shia civil war involving the use of heavy weapons in Baghdad along the lines observed in 2006. This scenario would also allow the Islamic State militant group to consolidate its position in the north of Iraq and raise the risk of it spearheading a ground assault on the capital.
Maliki probably calculates that the threat of calling on elite Special Forces units loyal to him to defend the presidential complex and engage rivals within the capital will limit defections from within the SLC and allow him to secure a position in the next administration.
However, his allies within the SLC and the armed forces would probably prefer to avoid a military confrontation and prioritise protecting their own future positions.
Haidar al-Abadi was appointed Iraqi prime minister on 11 August. Former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law Coalition (SLC) subsequently issued a statement endorsing Maliki, rejecting Abadi’s appointment and threatening to challenge the appointment at the Supreme Federal Court (SFC).
Abadi has 30 days during which to form a new cabinet.