Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s refusal to step down may trigger shia-shia fighting in Baghdad, according to an analysis by Meda Al Rowas, Senior Middle East Analyst, IHS Country Risk.
Iraqi security units loyal to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki were deployed in Baghdad, at locations including the entrances to the capital and the Green Zone, while key bridges and roads within the city were cordoned off.
The deployments followed Maliki referring Iraqi president Fouad Massoum to the Supreme Federal Court (SFC) for his refusal to recognise Maliki as the leader of the largest parliamentary bloc and appointing him as prime minister.
The SFC issued a verdict earlier that Maliki’s State of Law Coalition (SLC) is constitutionally the largest parliamentary bloc. However, the SLC is currently divided and has not yet put forward a candidate. In another development on 11 August, Muqtada al-Sadr, a religious, political, and militia leader opposed to Maliki, warned that an attack on Baghdad by Islamic State militants is imminent.
He called on his Peace Brigades militia, formed in June and currently tasked with protecting Shia religious shrines in Samarra to take up similar duties in Baghdad.
Maliki is increasingly likely to use force to protect his political position, even if the SLC opts to name another candidate for the premiership. Maliki has consolidated control over the security apparatus by establishing extra-constitutional security bodies and creating a direct chain of command from commanders to his office. This increases the risk of Maliki’s rivals, who have access to their own militias, using force to attempt to remove Maliki, raising the risk of Shia-Shia infighting within the capital, and subsequently civil war risks affecting southern provinces such as Basra, Najaf, Karbala, and Maysan. De-escalation pathways include Maliki’s rivals endorsing a third Maliki term and Maliki voluntarily stepping down or being forced out by his own coalition. At present, none of these de-escalation pathways appears likely.