In beheading the US journalist, it appears that the Islamic State is not shying away from drawing the US into a confrontation, as this would serve to increase support from local Sunnis, according to Zaineb Al-Assam, Middle East Analyst, IHS Country Risk.
Journalist James Foley had worked in a number of conflict zones in the Middle East, but the danger didn’t stop him from doing the job he loved.
“It would also drive recruitment from jihadists outside Iraq, particularly if civilians are killed by airstrikes.
“The US is keen to disengage from the region and is reluctant to enter into a renewed military campaign in Iraq, although there is a risk of mission creep in the event that the Islamic State or its affiliates succeed in committing a large-scale attack on US assets and nationals.
“It is therefore increasingly likely that the group, or other independent groups acting in its name, will attempt attacks on US interests, including embassies in Tunisia and Egypt, which are more vulnerable given already active militant groups and their proximity to Libya, and in Yemen.”
“Attacks are less likely in Jordan and Gulf Co-operation Council states, although IHS would note a somewhat higher risk in Jordan given its proximity to Iraq and the fact that the Islamic State, which has Jordanian fighters amongst its ranks, has pointedly called for attacks there.”