Any US ground combat deployment in Iraq is likely to be small and focused on air-strike support, according to new analysis from Anna Boyd, Deputy Head of Middle East Analysis at IHS Country Risk.
“United States Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Martin Dempsey stated that he might in future recommend a combat role for US troops in Iraq.
Despite the risk of ‘mission creep’, it is still highly unlikely in the next year that Obama will authorise large-scale ground troop deployments that would risk sparking an anti-US Shia-led insurgent campaign involving the Peace Brigades and other remobilized Shia militias such as Asaib al-Haqq.
Large-scale deployments would also undermine the credibility of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s new government among Sunni and Shia political factions and hinder attempts to mobilise local Sunni forces against Islamic State in northwest Iraq.
“It is much more likely that Obama could authorise deployment of small numbers of Special Forces units to help identify targets for US airstrikes. Meanwhile the joint AQIM/AQAP statement is likely to have little effect in uniting Sunni rebel efforts, given Islamic State’s policy of avoiding alliances with other groups except those that have formally submitted to it.”