Kabul: There is a growing optimism about truce between Afghan Government and Taliban, thanks to Pakistan-Afghanistan Governments unanimity of views on the issue.
“The potential for talks has been limited since the Taliban closed their office in Qatar in July 2013. However, the ISAF withdrawal, Afghanistan’s leadership change, and the country’s improved relations with Pakistan, all in 2014, have made the political environment more conducive for meaningful negotiations with the prospect of a power-sharing agreement between the two sides,” according to Omar Hamid, Head of Asia Analysis, IHS Country Risk.
“The Taliban wants to gain leverage in the lead up to potential talks. Therefore, we expect they will continue, and possibly intensify, their insurgency in the run up to any negotiation. Highlighting the government’s inability to protect even heavily guarded areas will place the Taliban in a more advantageous position. The emergence of peace talks would also significantly improve President Ghani’s domestic position within Afghanistan’s unity government, in which he is competing for influence with CEO Abdullah Abdullah. As such, government instability would improve if talks occur.”
“However, for negotiations to be successful, the current trend of improving Afghanistan-Pakistan relations will have to continue, given that any downturn in the relationship would cause Pakistan to end using its influence with the Afghan Taliban to push the group towards talks.”
“A high level Pakistani military delegation, including Chief of Army Staff General Raheel Sharif and Director General Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Lt Gen Rizwan Akhtar, visited Kabul on 17 February. Unconfirmed international media reports suggest that the Pakistani delegation informed Afghan officials during the one-day trip that the Taliban are ready for talks with the Kabul government as early as next month. Statements by the Chinese foreign minister and the Turkish prime minister over the past week expressing public support and offering help for a reconciliation process in Afghanistan are also part of successive indicators suggesting an increased likelihood of meaningful negotiations between Kabul and the Taliban.”