MANAMA: Failed military coup in Turkey shows cracks within the ranks of armed forces.
The military has seen its influence significantly curtailed under the AKP, and in particular under the Prime Ministerial and Presidential appointments of Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The coup itself was likely a response by a faction within the military who sought to cease the erosion of military power within the state that has accelerated in recent years and to re-establish the secular principals upon which the modern Turkish state was founded, according to Reed Foster, Middle East Military Capabilities Analyst at IHS Jane’s
The failure of the coup can be attributed largely to lack of unity within the armed forces supporting regime change, particularly at a time when the Turkish state is beset with increasing internal and external security threats ranging from PKK separatists to Islamic State militants. Even as reports surface of up to 6,000 service personnel being arrested in relation to the plot, they constitute only a fraction of the Turkish armed forces’ 400,000 active personnel.
There is unlikely to be further coup attempts by the military in the near-term, as the military’s power and political influence will be significantly tarnished by the latest incident. Unlike previous investigations and operations relating to ‘Ergenekon’ and ‘Sledgehammer’ there is unlikely to be significant public outcry against the conviction of key coup plotters. Vacancies created by purging officers who have voiced opposition to AKP policies filled by those loyal to the government.
The Turkish military has long seen itself as the guarantor of the secular Turkish state, historically intervening to remove civil governments that it has collectively deemed to threaten the integrity or the security of the state. Two previous coup plots since 2000 referred to widely as ‘Ergenekon’ and ‘Sledgehammer’ failed in the planning stages, while Friday’s attempt far exceeded both in both its scope and scale.