MANAMA: The role of Islamic Republic of Iran in the peace and security in the Middle East remained a key debate during the opening session of the IISS Manama Dialogue 2017.
“Sustained recovery and rise of Iran, and emergence of radical Islamist ideology, are most significant developments in region in past 30 years, says Sir John Jenkins, the outgoing Executive Director at the IISS Middle East.
John Jenkins lists Western failures in Syria, Libya and Iraq. “Where we create vacuums Islamists rush in.”
“Regional imperatives include: bring end to war in Yemen; help Iraq to move on from KRG referendum and overcome sectarianism; help regional states embrace reform; help youth gain access to education,” Jenkins said.
“Keys to the future include determination, resilience and strategic vision.”
“Iran is involved in one way or another with nearly every security issue affecting the Middle East… Above all is what’s been described as a Cold War between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Then there is the US dimension. The Trump administration has not killed the Iran nuclear deal as candidate Donald Trump vowed last year to do but decertified Iranian compliance and is pushing back against Iran in many other ways,” Mark Fitzpatrick, Executive Director, IISS-Americas, said.
“The parent group of the Islamic State, i.e., the Islamic State of Iraq, survived a near annihilation in 2007/8, will the Islamic State prove to be as resilient in the long-term? Dr Ja’fari did not share what Iraq is doing in terms of political corruption and sectarian politics to minimise the resilience of the Islamic State and its ability to come back,” Nelly Lahoud, Senior Fellow for Political Islamism, IISS-Middle East, said.
“From a counter terrorism perspective, a key challenge is what happens to the remaining ISIS fighters. The open source estimate is that the Islamic State still has 3,000 fighters spread between Syria and Iraq. Other reports suggest that the quick fall of Raqqa has made it difficult to track foreign fighters. This makes it challenging for states to anticipate where these foreign fighters will go and what they will do. A policy for returnees/fighters needs to be devised.”
“The experience of the rise and reign of terror of Daesh in Iraq and Syria has been traumatic. The effects of the trail of destruction they left and the viral ideology they released into Muslim communities will be felt long after their physical presence has been eliminated,” John Raine, IISS Senior Adviser for Geopolitical Due Diligence, said.
“But was it traumatic enough for countries in the region to rethink how they together tackle the deep-seated causes of extremism and violence? Daesh represented a profound crisis both in the Region and in global Islam recalling the emergence of Al Qaeda and 9/11. There were commitments made then but what did they lead to? The victory of Al Daesh and other terrorists, extremists and their and sponsors is that though we survive them we repeat the political and social mistakes which they exploit.”
