Dubai: Six themes are expected to shape this year’s Middle East economic outlook, research conducted by Ziad Daoud, Chief Middle East Economist, Bloomberg Economics, has found.
“Oil and geopolitics have always dominated Middle Eastern economic cycles. In 2017, growth underperformed the rest of the world as both factors turned unfavourable. A recovery is coming in 2018, but there are risks associated with an escalation of geopolitical tensions,” Daoud said.
The six themes Bloomberg Economics expects to shape the region’s outlook in 2018 are:
• Faster growth, which is expected to accelerate from 2.8% in 2017 to 3.5% in 2018
• Geopolitical tensions and internal political landscapes will continue to influence the region’s economies
• Continued external debt issuance, particularly from the GCC
• Gulf pegs to the dollar are expected to remain this year
• Growth in Egypt, which should accelerate above 5% for the first time since November 2016
• Less accommodative policy in Turkey, with expected withdrawal of fiscal stimulus and further rate hikes. This could help lower inflation and stabilize the currency.