MANAMA: China’s lack of ambition to become a nuclear superpower, while ostensibly comforting, presents a special set of challenges for crisis-stability in North-East Asia, according to a new publication from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
In his new Adelphi publication, Paper Tigers: China’s Nuclear Posture, Jeffrey Lewis, Director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, examines China’s unique attitude towards nuclear weapons and the impact that this has on foreign policy.
“There is no evidence to support the belief that, as the US cuts its stockpile, China might sprint to achieve parity and become a nuclear superpower. Instead, he claims China’s behaviour is the result of a fundamentally different attitude towards nuclear weapons on the part of its people,” the author said.
In his book, Lewis references Mao Zedong’s famous and oft-quoted remark that ‘nuclear weapons are a paper tiger,’ something that has the appearance of being very powerful but is in reality nothing to be afraid of, as an example of the key differences between Western and Chinese attitudes towards nuclear weapons. This attitude has, according to Lewis, been reflected in the way that China has developed its existing nuclear arsenal and its thinking about nuclear weapons.
Lewis states that, consistently, China prioritised the achievement of certain technological benchmarks, such as developing a thermonuclear weapon or an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM), but did not then prioritise large-scale production or deployment with the armed forces. China first tested an H-bomb in 1967, but did not then deploy its first ICBM until 1981. Likewise, nuclear strategy was not properly addressed until after Mao’s death.
According to Lewis, the relatively small size of China’s nuclear arsenal and its seeming vulnerability stand at odds with the country’s no-first-use pledge regarding nuclear weapons, as it is unlikely that its existing arsenal could survive an initial attack. He says this should be a source of huge concern, given the risk of a clash between the US and China in North East Asia, because US officials have no confidence that China would abide by its stated policy in the event of a crisis. That in turn increases the risks of miscalculation and overreaction.
“Even if nuclear weapons are a “paper tiger”, they retain the capacity to frighten us. Whether that fear is enough to compel us to respond to the shared danger they pose remains to be seen.”