The number of Russian Air Force operations has markedly increased over recent months, according to Konrad Muzyka, IHS Jane’s Military Capabilities Analyst.
“This is confirmed by reported NATO data, which illustrated that in 2014 the Alliance aircraft intercepted Russian planes more than 400 times, three times as many as in 2013.
“As the conflict in Ukraine escalates, there is a likelihood of increased Russian Air Force operational tempo of long-range aircraft operating over Northern and Western Europe.
“On 28 January UK Eurofighter Typhoons and French Dassault Mirage jets were forced to intercept Russian aircraft over the English Channel. The latter composed of the nuclear-capable Tupolev Tu-95MS bombers accompanied by Ilyushin Il-78 ‘Midas’ tankers and Mikoyan MiG-31 ‘Foxhound’ interceptors.
“Although not entering UK or French-controlled airspace, the flight path of the Russian aircraft disrupted European civilian air traffic as the Russian flights was undertaken without a filled flight plan, with transponders switched off, and with no communication with civilian air traffic control (ATC). If similar flights continue in the future, risks to civilian aircraft may be mitigated by increased sharing military radar data with civilian ATC authorities. In mid-December 2014 the Swedish military warned the civil ATC of a Russian military aircraft operating over the Baltic, possibly averting collision between a civil Swedish airliner and Russian military aircraft.
IHS Jane’s anticipates Russian air patrols over Northern and Western Europe to further gather pace in 2015. This is connected to the ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine and threat of additional sanctions being put on Russia for supporting the insurgency. Russian actions such as flights may become even more frequent if the U.S. or European nations take the decision to lend more robust support to Kiev. In this case, Russian aircraft presence, especially over the Baltic, will likely grow significantly.